Predicting needs for nursing home admission - does sense of coherence delay nursing home admission in care dependent older people? A longitudinal study.

Objectives.  This study examined predisposing, enabling and need variables (Andersen's Behavioral Model) influencing the need for nursing home admission (NHA) in older people receiving home nursing care. In particular, the potential role of coping ability, measured as 'sense of coherence' (SOC), was studied. Design, sample, and measurements.  A survey with baseline- and follow-up data after a 2-year period was undertaken with 208 patients aged 75+. The measures used were: gender, education, age, social visits, SOC, social provision scale (SPS), self-rated health (SRH), general health questionnaire (GHQ), clinical dementia rating (CDR), Barthel activities of daily living (ADL) index, and registered illnesses (RI). A Cox proportional model was used to examine factors that could explain risk of NHA. Results.  Measures with predictive properties were Barthel ADL index, SPS, SRH, and gender. SOC, along with subjective health complaints, general health questionnaire, RI and social visits did not predict NHA. Conclusions.  It is concluded that the patients' subjective evaluations of both their health and perceived social support were important predictors of future NHA needs, and should be seriously taken into consideration, along with the more commonly used objective measures of ADL and CDR.